Ecology Center

Global Warming Will Alter Character of Michigan

Midwest Scientists Say Great Lakes Region Must Plan Now to Reduce Economic and Environmental Vulnerability

Contact: Rich Hayes (202) 223-6133
Marcy Hayes (248) 557-2510

DETROIT, April 8 -- A comprehensive new study released today by a team of leading scientists from Midwest universities and Canada concludes that climate change in Michigan caused by heat-trapping gases from human activities could lead to a 6-10 degree Fahrenheit temperature increase in winter and 7-13 degree warming in summer by the end of this century. These changes could bring more floods and droughts, lower lake levels and less lake ice cover, increased burdens on farmers, and growing conflicts over water use. The scientists say climate change will likely also magnify existing health and environmental problems in the region. However, the report concludes that actions can be taken now to forestall many of the most severe impacts.

"Climate change will alter the character of Michigan, presenting challenges to the environment, economy and the people who live here," said the lead author of the report, Dr. George Kling, a biology professor at the University of Michigan. "Within only three decades a summer in Michigan may feel like a summer in Kentucky. By the end of the century, a summer in Michigan may feel like a summer in current Arkansas. To avert the worst impacts of global warming, the region can harness its industrial know-how and economic strength to reduce the amount of fossil fuels we burn to produce electricity and drive our cars."

Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on Our Communities and Ecosystems is a joint effort by the Ecological Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Scientists from the University of Michigan, University of Illinois, University of Minnesota, University of Wisconsin, and University of Toronto wrote the report. The two-year study represents the current state of scientific knowledge about the potential regional impacts of climate change, which is caused principally by carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, vehicles, and clearing forests.

The study combines the most advanced models of the Earth's climate system with 100 years of historical climate data for the region to produce the latest, most reliable projections of future climate change in the Great Lakes region. It finds that as a result of the projected warming, plants, animals, ecosystems, and the more than 60 million people who live in the region will likely experience impacts such as more heat waves, infrastructure damages, impacts on livestock and crops, loss of boreal forest, loss of wetlands, and the drying up of headwater streams in summer.

In Michigan, the number of hot days in Detroit is projected to double or even triple, with years later in the century experiencing 30-50 days exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Of even greater concern is the projected 5- to 10-fold increase in days exceeding 97 degrees by the end of the century, which will require improved warning systems and preparation to avoid severe health impacts. Increasing temperatures may extend the warm-weather recreation season and reduce cold-related mortality, but communities and businesses dependent on revenues from cross-country or downhill skiing, snowmobiling, and ice fishing could be hard-hit.

The Great Lakes region contains the largest single concentration of fresh water on the planet. The report authors expect seasonal shifts in precipitation. As a result, the region's water supplies may well dwindle, especially during summer, when rainfall can't compensate for the drying effect of a warmer climate; the levels of the Great Lakes and smaller inland lakes are likely to drop overall; soil moisture in the region could decrease by as much as 30 percent in the summer; and competition over water resources for irrigation, drinking, and other human uses could increase. Small farmers are likely to be hurt the worst by the pinch of an increasingly variable rainfall.

"Our forests may see some short-term growth due to higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but in the long-term, they will be damaged by high levels of ozone, frequent droughts, fires, and destructive insect pests," said Dr. Donald R. Zak, an ecology professor at the University of Michigan.

The report describes how the Great Lakes region can rise to the challenges of climate change with a three-pronged approach: reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases, minimizing human pressures on ecosystems, and planning for the impacts of a changing climate. Michigan could reduce its substantial contribution to the heat-trapping CO2 blanket surrounding the Earth by increasing energy efficiency in industries and homes, boosting renewable energy sources such as wind power, and by improving vehicle fuel efficiency. Prudent steps to curb air pollution, protect water supplies and aquatic habitats, and reduce the spread of invasive species can help minimize the vulnerability of vital ecosystems. And finally, elected officials, government leaders, and resource managers can lessen future damage from climate change with, for example, shifts in fisheries and forest management and farming activities, changes in building codes, and better public health management.

"With nearly one-third of all heat-trapping emissions coming from transportation in the United States, it is critically important to reduce emissions from the cars and trucks we drive," said David Friedman, a Senior Vehicles Engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "Because Michigan is the center of the nation's automobile industry, the state has a unique opportunity to take the lead in addressing global warming. Detroit can demonstrate its technological leadership by applying gas-saving technology to its vehicles to spur sales and create new jobs vital to the region."